Industrial transitions

This programme studies how the material basis of the economy changes: the technologies, materials and supply chains that industry and construction rely on, and the pathways by which they can decarbonize. It runs from the chemistry of a single product to the structure of a whole sector, across mineral binders, cement and concrete, timber, stone and other natural materials.

It asks three things of any technology or material. Does it cut emissions once the system around it is counted? Can it scale within the limits of resources and by-products? What new dependencies or risks does it create? The answers take the form of technology assessments, sector foresight and transition roadmaps, for those who produce, buy and regulate materials.

A low-carbon label usually reports one figure for one product. It rarely shows the by-product that runs short once every plant uses it, the emissions of chemical activators, the carbon of the biomass burnt in a kiln, or rebound effects. These decide whether a technology is a solution or a future liability. Natural and under-represented materials face the opposite problem: their benefits are often missing from the roadmaps that steer purchasing.

1. 01A classification of technologies as maladaptive, incremental, scalable or disruptive
2. 02A purchasing strategy for developers, contractors and public buyers
3. 03Sector roadmaps toward industrial-ecology pathways
4. 04Evidence for including natural materials in public roadmaps