P3 OF 4

Programme 3 · How is the transition counted?

Measuring transitions

What do accounting standards omit, how uncertain are their figures, and what risk does that carry?

STATUS · Concept and working paper; methods tested in other programmes

What the programme covers

This programme studies how transitions are counted: the emission factors, life-cycle assessments, standards, labels and disclosure rules on which plans, purchases and investments rely. A figure is only as reliable as the boundary, conventions and method behind it.

It examines what those methods omit, how far defensible methods disagree, and which decisions change once the omission is counted. It develops ways to report a result with its uncertainty rather than as a single number, and it assesses both the claims made with these tools and the tools themselves. It serves those who set standards, allocate capital or must decide whether to trust a claim.

What the figures leave out

An emission factor is one number. Behind it sit a boundary, a set of conventions and a choice between several defensible methods. What falls outside the boundary counts as zero. The spread between methods disappears into a single figure. When rules change, assets valued on that figure can be re-rated. We treat the gap itself as the object of study.

Scope

ObjectAssets and activities; the standards that assess them
MethodSector-agnostic
First applicationCement and concrete

Selected work

Examples of current work. The programme is not limited to them.

The accounting gap: what environmental standards omit, and the risk it carriesMeasuring · ConceptA method to measure the gap between what environmental accounting standards count and what an activity actually does, split into omissions and method uncertainty, and to read that gap as regulatory and stranded-asset risk.PRODUCTLCA · UNCERTAINTY

Also shown here

Separating real from apparent innovation: 24 low-carbon cement and concrete technologies assessedIndustrial · Completed · Peer reviewedAn assessment of 24 low-carbon cement and concrete technologies in five families. It separates levers that cut emissions quickly and at scale from those with hidden externalities, and turns the result into a purchasing strategy.SECTORTECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT · LCAFROM P1The forest carbon cost of harvest, attributed to wood products across EuropeLand · ProvisionalWhat harvesting a forest costs in forest carbon, compared with leaving it unharvested, and how that cost is attributed to sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper, pellets and energy wood across the EU-27. All results are provisional.LAND SYSTEMBIOPHYSICAL · GEOSPATIAL · LCA · UNCERTAINTYFROM P2

Also shown here: The forest carbon cost of wood products (Provisional results), for its allocation and uncertainty methods. The programme also draws on methods from the cement and concrete assessment.

All projects

Methods

Where the research ends

  1. 01Gap assessments of assets: what is omitted, how uncertain the figure is
  2. 02Assessments of standards and regulatory frameworks themselves, with an independent rating initiative in preparation
P1 · Built fromIndustrial transitions P2 · Draws onLand and ecosystem transitions P4 · HoldsSystemic transitions

Allocating capital, setting standards or assessing claims?

Discuss this programme