Land and ecosystem transitionsProvisional results

The forest carbon cost of harvest, attributed to wood products across Europe

What harvesting a forest costs in forest carbon, compared with leaving it unharvested, and how that cost is attributed to sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper, pellets and energy wood across the EU-27. All results are provisional.

Project facts

ProgrammeLand and ecosystem transitions · also shown in Industrial transitions and Measuring transitions
StatusProvisional results What the status labels mean
MethodsBiophysical modelling · Geospatial modelling · Environmental accounting and LCA · Uncertainty analysis
ScaleLand system
GeographyEU-27, from a ~1 km forest pixel to NUTS 0–3 regions

The question

What does harvesting a forest cost in forest carbon, which product accounting currently sets to zero? And does replacing a fossil-intensive product with a wood-based one still lower emissions once that cost is counted?

What the figures leave out

Wood products are usually accounted as if harvest had no carbon cost. Yet harvest changes how much carbon a forest holds in trees, dead wood and soil, compared with the same forest left unharvested. That difference, the forest carbon cost of harvest, is what this project measures and attributes to products.

Approach

Forest growth, dead organic matter and soil carbon are modelled against a no-harvest counterfactual, pixel by pixel. Material-flow analysis then attributes the carbon cost to products, under three allocation rules reported side by side. Product pairs, such as timber against concrete, are compared with a break-even factor. Uncertainty is run by Monte Carlo simulation, and structural choices are shown separately from error bars.

FOREST PIXEL, ~1 KMTreesDead woodSoilNO HARVESTHARVESTTHE DIFFERENCE:FOREST CARBON COSTSET TO ZERO BYPRODUCT ACCOUNTINGMATERIAL-FLOW ANALYSIS · THREE ALLOCATION RULES, SIDE BY SIDESawnwoodPanelsPulpPaper and paperboardPelletsEnergy wood FOREST PIXEL, ~1 KMTreesDead woodSoilNO HARVESTHARVESTTHE DIFFERENCE:FOREST CARBON COSTSET TO ZERO BYPRODUCT ACCOUNTINGMATERIAL-FLOWANALYSIS · THREEALLOCATION RULES,SIDE BY SIDESawnwoodPanelsPulpPaper and paperboardPelletsEnergy wood
FIG. 1 · METHOD SCHEMATIC · NO VALUES · Diagram: forest carbon with and without harvest; the difference is allocated across six wood-product categories.STATUS · PROVISIONAL RESULTS

Scope

EU-27geographic coverage
~1 kmforest pixel, aggregated to NUTS 0–3 regions
6product categories: sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper and paperboard, pellets, energy wood
2wood types (softwood, hardwood) and 2 harvest types (thinning, final felling)

Where it stands

Provisional results

The model chain is built end to end. All results are provisional until targeted reviews of every assumption that lowers the cost are complete. No emission factor is published yet.

PLANNED OUTPUTS · a methodology paper, open tables and maps, an interactive web tool.

The decision it informs

EU rules on land use and forestry after 2030, forest bioenergy rules, whole-life carbon of buildings (timber against concrete), carbon-removal certification, product declarations and public procurement.

INSTRUMENTS · Product-level forest-carbon factors; break-even thresholds for substitution.

What the work required

  • Forest growth and yield modelling; forest soil science
  • Geospatial data engineering
  • Forest-industry flow analysis
  • LCA and allocation methodology (EN 15804, ISO 14044, the EU renewable-energy methodology)
  • Forest-product economics and climate metrics
  • Asymmetric scrutiny: more checks on assumptions that make the answer convenient

Working on forest carbon, wood products or the rules that count them?

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