Systemic transitionsProvisional results

Why efficient systems become fragile: the conditions under which robust organization emerges

An evolutionary, agent-based model with physical constraints. It asks whether competition under fluctuation and scarcity keeps the fastest organizations or the most robust ones, and which institutional rules decide the outcome. Results are provisional.

Project facts

ProgrammeSystemic transitions
StatusProvisional results What the status labels mean
MethodsAgent-based and complex-systems modelling
ScaleTheory
GeographyAbstract; not calibrated to any economy

The question

In systems facing fluctuation and scarcity, does selection keep the fastest, most power-maximizing organizations or the most robust ones? And which institutional arrangements decide the outcome?

What the figures leave out

Efficiency counts redundancy, buffers, slowness and diversity as costs. In living systems they are what keeps an organism viable, as the biologist Olivier Hamant has argued. This project asks when competition removes them and when it keeps them.

Approach

Agents compete and evolve under explicit thermodynamic constraints. Hypotheses are written down before each round of experiments, and the model is tested on stress scenarios held out from its design. Robustness is measured with tools from viability theory. Failed predictions are reported with the rest.

FLUCTUATING, SCARCE RESOURCEFAST: MAXIMIZES THROUGHPUTROBUST: KEEPS BUFFERSDOTTED RING: REDUNDANCY, BUFFERS, SLOWNESS, COUNTED AS COSTS BY EFFICIENCYSelectionTHERMODYNAMICCONSTRAINTSWhich persist?THE FASTEST OR THEMOST ROBUST; RULESDECIDE FLUCTUATING, SCARCE RESOURCEFAST: MAXIMIZES THROUGHPUTROBUST: KEEPS BUFFERSDOTTED RING: BUFFERS COUNTEDAS COSTS BY EFFICIENCYSelectionTHERMODYNAMIC CONSTRAINTSWhich persist?THE FASTEST OR THE MOST ROBUST;RULES DECIDE
FIG. 1 · METHOD SCHEMATIC · NO VALUES · Diagram of the model: agents with fast or robust strategies under fluctuating resources, followed by selection.STATUS · PROVISIONAL RESULTS

Scope

570+verified references behind the programme

Where it stands

Provisional results

Provisional results, described qualitatively and not quoted as findings. The model has run several rounds of experiments and has not been peer reviewed. The next round, on property and collective-choice rules, is designed and not yet run.

The decision it informs

Which safety margins survive competition, and which need rules, pooling or public provision. Whether rules triggered by a shock protect better than permanent restrictions.

INSTRUMENTS · Robustness roadmaps for public and private decision makers.

What the work required

  • Agent-based and evolutionary modelling
  • Thermodynamic and ecological economics (the maximum power principle)
  • Turning biological robustness and viability theory into measurable criteria
  • Research governance: pre-registration, published failures, full provenance

Builds on

None yet

Working on robustness, resilience or the economics of safety margins?

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